Sep
7

The tragedy and redemption of Johan Santana-The first Hall of Famer saved by Sabermetrics

Mike Ehrmann / Getty

In 2006 he was untouchable. Twin Cy Youngs to go along with a golden arm and a name oozing with poetry. All this in the wilds ofMinnesota, just aching to show the world what he could do. Johan Santana was the best pitcher in baseball in 2006, and the most coveted potential free-agent to that point in the 21^st century. With apologies to Roy Halladay, Santana was the man. A live fastball, good breaker, and that changeup that made major leaguers look lost at the plate. Santana in 2006 was destined for greatness with pundits saying his name along with the greats of Maddux, Gibson, or Grove. The one knock was that he couldn’t do it in the postseason, but most chalked that up to playing in the Homer Dome and lack of experience, playing on a mid-market window hunter like the Twins.

Meanwhile, in Flushing, Queens, Mets owner Jeff Wilpon was beginning to look desperate. Long have the New York Mets been the little brother, the also ran, below the fold. After a high-point in 2000 when they faced the cross-town Yankees in the World Series, the Mets had struggled to get over the hump. 2006 was just another typical year for them, with big signee Carlos Beltran taking an Adam Wainright curveball for the final strike of the NLCS. The Cardinals would go on to win the series against an outclassed Detroit Tigers team, which surely rankled Wilpon all the more. He tried everything the Yankees did in terms of spending money, but to no avail. Another disappointing 2007 season ended with the Mets participating in one of the worst September collapses in baseball history, being up seven games on the Phillies as of September 12 and not making the postseason. Mets fans were apoplectic that the second-highest paid team in baseball could lose so epically to bottom-dwellers the Nationals and the Marlins. Wilpon had to act, in a big way, to get his team back to the playoffs the next year at the very least. Being neighbors with the Yankees surely hurt the Mets because of expectations, but there was nothing to be done about that. So Wilpon and GM Omar Minaya unleashed all they could, sending a glut of talented minor leaguers to Minnesota for Johan Santana, and signing him immediately to a 6-year, $137.5 million contract. The best pitcher in baseball was now the highest-paid in history, and in a marquee place where he could continue to record what would no doubt become a legendary career.

It was a marriage that should have only ended in bliss, and it started off awfully well. Santana was the Opening Day starter and dominated like he should, seven innings of two-run ball with eight strikeouts. He was as-advertised great. He took a loss his second start despite allowing only one earned run, but that happens, right? It wasn’t until his sixth and seventh starts that something went wrong. Two no-decisions, six innings in one against Arizona and 5.2 against Pittsburgh, but he only allowed three runs over those two games. The Met offense was silent. Everyone shrugged it off, but it happened again. And again. Seven innings of shutout ball against Arizona in June, the Mets lost 5-4. Three ND’s in July, two of which he went eight innings and allowed two runs per game. Two seven-plus inning starts to begin August, allowing one and two runs respectively. By the end of the season he had nine starts of six-plus innings allowing two or less runs. Then, to top it all off, he pitched three games in nine days to close the season, going seven, eight, and nine innings and allowing one, two, and zero runs for three wins. It was later revealed that he had a torn meniscus in his left knee. Undefeated in the second half, but a league-tying seven blown saves. Split that down the middle and you still have a 20-game winner with a career-best 2.53 ERA and 206 strikeouts, and he should have had another Cy Young on the mantle. The Mets were bumped from the postseason in the last week despite his effort, and that was the season. Management pledged to bolster the ‘pen that had so doomed the team, and hope continued anew.

Year Two of the Santana Era was little better than the first. The Mets opened Citi Field, their new park with acres of pasture. For Santana, this was a curse more than a blessing. To start, his run support per game dropped from 4.83 to 3.62. A lot of this could be blamed on injuries like that to centerfielder Carlos Beltran, shortstop Jose Reyes, and the size of the park not allowing third baseman David Wright to hit home runs. He hit 33 in ’08 and only 10 the entirety of ’09. Normally though pitchers benefit from large parks, and Santana had another fine season, posting a 3.13 ERA and stirking out 144 over 25 starts. Bone chips in his pitching elbow forced a shutdown in August, but the Mets were done by then anyway, so there was little to be gained from him damaging himself too much. Three times though he went into the eighth with a lead and got no decision, and five times he took the loss while giving up two runs or less in seven-plus innings. Hard luck does not begin to describe the life of Johan Santana to this point.

As Santana began his career with the Mets, another AL Central team, the Cleveland Indians, had a big powerful lefty in a contract year. C.C. Sabathia, as he was then known, had won a Cy Young the year before while carrying the Tribe to the ALCS before falling to the Red Sox. An incredibly disappointing start for the Indians, with injury to stars and C.C. starting off 6-8 forced the hand of GM Mark Shapiro to blow it up and rebuild (still a strange series of events for Indians fans to digest). C.C. was traded to Milwaukee, changed his name to CC, and went 11-2 with a 1.65 ERA to carry the Brewers to the post –season. Seven complete games, 17 starts and 130 innings pitched showed CC to be the horse everyone hoped he would be. The Yankees, coming off their first October home since 1995, coveted the mighty CC, and signed him to a 6-year, $160 million deal. Long story short, he went on to win 19 games and a World Series and live up to what he was billed. Now, with a month left in the 2010 season, he again has 19 wins and is poised for as many as 24 and the inside track to the Cy Young. Even if he pitches .500 ball in Septeber, that’s still 21 wins, giving him 40 over his two years with the Yankees. Johan Santana, in 3 years, is 40-25 to this point, with his bullpen and teammates leaving at least eight more wins on the table for him.

To this point, the only thing the Mets have going for them, besides a pile of money, a new ballpark, and a fan base that will continue to spend money (for now) is a great third baseman in David Wright and Johan Santana. The sadness of Santana is he was the best in the game just two short years ago. Now, because of the Mets, he is in the process of losing 50 wins from his career totals. After his second Cy Young, everyone had him pegged as a 300-game winner, with his pitching based on finesse over power, hypercompetitive attitude, and what should be a contending team behind him every year. But as it stands, he is 31 years old with a record of 133-69, good for a .659 winning percentage. On the Mets, that drops to .615 even though his ERA has gone down. If this continues he will be 35 when his contract runs out with a record of roughly 180-100. No pitcher outside of Roger Clemens has had dominating success after 35, much less 120-win success. Santana is not pitching for another 10 years, already his fastball and changeup are backing up on each other. If he makes it to 250 wins, that would be marvelous, but that 300 that seemed so attainable is slipping away. The thing that will save him and open the doors of Cooperstown is the bane of all old baseball writers, Sabermetrics. Santana’s ERA+, a measurement that compares pitchers to eachother based on league ERA, is 145 (100 is average) compared to his contemporary in Sabathia who is at 133 over his last five years. Greg Maddux had a career ERA+ of 132. His career WHIP (Walks, hits per innings pitched) is 1.120, compared to Roy Halladay’s 1.183 over his career. Hall of Famer Bob Gibson’s career WHIP was 1.188. I can keep going too. Hitters are batting .226 against Santana in his career, .238 in his time with the Mets. Greg Maddux’s opposing batting average was .250. Santana has more than 1800 strikeouts, and though 3000 is a long way off, it’s a possibility.

Is Johan Santana a Hall of Famer? Maybe. As with anyone in the Hall, he has to keep doing it for a while. One paragraph of stat listing doesn’t do him justice, go and watch a game he pitches. He will keep playing, barring a catastrophic injury, for a long time. The wins won’t be there when the committee gathers to consider him a couple decades from now, but with any luck, they can look beyond that and allow one of the greats into the Hall. He said at the beginning of the season he was still the best pitcher in the NL East, and even though the Doc has taken his residence to Philly and Josh Johnson down in Miami is really coming into his own, Santana has been doing it and continues to do it. As time goes on and people realize what statistics really matter, Santana is going to have his place in history. Sabathia will join him of course, as a more traditional member of the Hall, but it would be something to see them both on the same stage, one voted in with the old ways, one with the new. Santana will be saved by Sabermetrics, all it takes is a little understanding.