Aug
12
AFC WEST
San Diego Chargers
Sean Merriman, San Diego Chargers LB (Donald Miralle / Getty Images)
Perennial underachievers, that is the tag to slap on this team from Southern California. Oddly enough, the only professional team from an area that is one of the most populated in the nation and also football hungry, the Chargers have a hard time filling their stadium on an eight game winning streak. Even so, in the regular season few are as dangerous as this squad. Coach Norv Turner returns to drag this team back to mediocrity for another year and utterly cripple them in the postseason ( I am convinced that Turner’s effect on teams is to draw them as close to 8-8 as possible, regardless of talent level). In many ways though the Chargers have done good work with addition by subtraction. The decision to not resign LaDanian Tomlinson for another year will be a boon for this team, as LT demanded touches that took away from the work of quarterback Phillip Rivers. Now that he’s gone the playbook can open up a little more and Turner can (maybe) use Darren Sproles in more creative means by putting him in space. The drafting of Ryan Matthews out of Fresno State should alleviate any drop off from LT’s departure, but if anything it really will be a boost, as Matthews is younger, fresher, and hungrier. Rivers himself has ascended to the level of elite QB and unquestioned leader of this team. Say what you will about his demeanor and his antics on the field, Rivers has a cannon of an arm, great vision on the field, and is smart as a whip when it comes to football. As long as Rivers is under center and Antonio Gates is the tight end, this offense will score on you, and score in bunches. Vincent Jackson’s absence due to holdout won’t be a problem since Rivers has a poor man’s Manning effect on wideouts. The O-line has not been mentioned in the press in a long time, which is all you want from your big guys. Defensively is where the Chargers will face the biggest dropoff. The loss of Antonio Cromartie, even though they got some goods in a trade, is going to make Quentin Jammer the number one corner, and opposing quarterbacks will adore this. Sean Merriman is continuing his precipitous fall post-steroid use, and will be continually ineffective. Sean Phillips is a beast up front, but with Merriman falling off, teams can focus on him. The Chargers will benefit from a continually weak AFC West, with the Chiefs still in some kind of holding pattern, the Broncos getting hurt left and right, and the Raiders trying to claw their way out of a cellar. Probably the only divisional team that could scare them is the Raiders in fact. The Chargers will see the postseason only because they haven’t fallen off hard enough in a weak division, but that crown is getting a little heavy, and their time on top is waning. A deep drive just isn’t in the cards for the powder blue Bolts. Prediction : 11-5, playoffs, probably.
Oakland Raiders
Oakland Raiders RB Darren McFadden (Jed Jacobsohn / Getty Images)
As I disclosed at the end of the last post, I am a Raiders fan, Silver and Black till I die. But even so, the objective part of me sees good things in Oakland’s future. The dumping of super-bust JaMarcus Russell was probably the biggest move this team made in the offseason, and now there is actually a leader under center and some continuity at coach. Tom Cable gets a lot of hate for breaking his assistant’s jaw, being a numbskull, and generally just seeming like more of a fan than a football coach. But he is what this team needed, a disciplinarian that expects only the best from his players. He is eternally upbeat and has the whole team on one page, with the slogan “1-0” hanging over every practice. Its been a long, long couple of years in Oakland, with the much-publicized 11+ loss seasons running to 7 straight. This is apparently a record, but that is the past. Jason Campbell, formerly of the Redskins, comes to town with a chip on his shoulder, a proven history of being able to get it done even in terrible situations like Washington’s, and a young, eager group around him. In his time in Washington, Campbell never really tasted winning and was pilloried for it. But when you don’t have any continuity and an overly meddlesome owner like Dan Reeves its hard to get anything going. So coming to Oakland is a fresh start for the still-young Campbell, only 27. He did go 13-0 at Auburn, which since USC had to vacate every win in 2004 are the national champs by default. Anyone who talks about football is raving about Hue Jackson at offensive coordinator for what he did in Baltimore the last couple of years, and I won’t say anything bad, as long as he gets a little more creative in the play calling, since Cable really didn’t have the mind for it last year and showed it late in games. Cable has bolstered the offensive line, a piece of the team that has long been the source of the Raiders problems. The draft class included physical freak Bruce Campbell and Jared Veldheer, the best D-2 player in the country. Both these young men are great picks as linemen, and after some seasoning will make a big impact. The offensive line is where Cable has long made his bread so its important for him to make it the best it can be. The receiving corps is young and pretty unproven, but if Chaz Schillens can stay healthy, Louis Murphy can continue to grow from the flashes of brilliance he showed last year and first rounder Darrius Heyward-Bey can improve, it’s a young fast crew to be catching balls from a good QB for once. Tight end Zach Miller will really have a breakout season and show everyone outside California he is one of the best in the game. The running game should be pretty good as long as Jackson can figure out how to use Darren McFadden properly. McFadden and Michael Bush are a great one-two combo, with one being the home-run hitter in the Adrian Peterson mold (McFadden) and the other being the wrecking ball (Bush) The Raiders got smart in the draft, picking Rolando McClain to help the linebacker corps. McClain is a beast, catching rave reviews from anyone who has seen him, and based on the bludgeoning the Crimson Tide laid on the SEC and Texas last season, he’s going to be great. Richard Seymour comes back for another year and the Raiders also drafted Lamarr Houston out of Texas to boost the d-line. The young man is a monster, and may be moved to defensive end from his original position of d-tackle in an effort to help stop the run. That is really the crux of the whole season for the Raiders, is stopping the run. The secondary will be fine, with Namdi Asomugha continuing to be the best corner in the league, with apologies to Darrell Revis. On the other side, Chris Johnson has the unenviable task of being the target of opposing offenses, but he played a very solid game last year, and that should continue to improve if the Raiders can get pressure on the QB. The safeties in Tyvon Branch, Michael Huff, and the young, hard hitting Mike Mitchell have tons of potential, it remains to be seen if that shows through. Yes, there has been a shift in the AFC West, and the Chargers would be wise to note it, as the Raiders are poised to rise again, and bring the Silver and Black back to what they once were. Its an important season for the Raiders, and though the playoffs aren’t in the offing, there’s a reason you play all 16 games, so who knows what will happen. The Broncos have taken a step back as have the Chargers, and the Chiefs continue to founder. The schedule is pretty easy, so its not a huge stretch to see Oakland in January, but still, realism prevails. Prediction : 9-7
Denver Broncos
The Denver Broncos
Denver fans must be as confused as I am about this team. It seems like only two years ago this was a team on the rise with a young gun at QB, a defense that was making strides in the right direction, and the magic of Mike Shanahan that allowed anyone to step into the running back role and rush for 100 yards in any given game. Then Shanahan got fired, frat boy coach Josh McDaniels came in with a Belichick-ian swagger that doesn’t work if you haven’t won anything and blew it all up. Cutler was gone for what turned into Tim Tebow and the Bears gave the Broncos Mr. Mullet himself in Kyle Orton. Orton always had a place in my heart because of his tenacity and obvious enjoyment of the game, though now I rather detest him if only because of his location. Brandon Marshall, all-everything wide receiver talked his way out of Denver, so now the receiving corps includes Eddie Royal, Brandon Stokley, and not much else. For this Orton will suffer despite his ability to not throw picks since Marshall can make anyone look like an all-Pro. The running game with Knowshawn Moreno will continue to improve, but that offensive line is looking pretty haggard of late and needs an infusion of fresh legs sooner rather than later. McDaniels is going to have his work cut out for him with not having a real game-changer on the offensive side of the ball, much less the defensive side. Speaking of which, Elvis Dumervil, last year’s sack king, is out for a long time with a torn pectoral. I saw Ricky Williams suffer one of these in his first game back, and it knocked him out for the season. So other than Dumervil, Champ Bailey still prowls the secondary, and though the old man may have lost a step, is still one of the better corners in the league. Denver’s linebacker corps is pretty empty, definitely not striking terror into anyone’s heart. McDaniels seems to have made moves for the future, so the Broncos and their fans don’t see the postseason in the offing. The aforementioned pick of Tebow at 25 in the draft has been hated on by many, but that guy is going to be a winner in the NFL, make no bones about it. His work ethic, the fact that he’s sitting out the whole season probably, and his track record for winning no matter the cost will pay off in the long term for Denver. Much like Vince Young in Tennessee, the guy knows how to win, he just needs to refine his game which the Broncos are more than happy to let him it seems. The Chargers continuing to be good and the Raiders on the rise are going to hurt this team, and they are going to slip down in the standings for the first time in a while. Prediction : 7-9
Kansas City Chiefs
Chiefs QB Matt Cassel (Dilip Vishwanat)
Chiefs president Scott Pioli is doing his best to rebuild the New England Patriots in KC. Bringing in former Pats coordinators Romeo Crennel and Charlie Weis will help to take some pressure off head coach Todd Haley. Haley is pretty unproven as a head coach, having only the 4-12 2009 season under his belt. But with Matt Cassel under center, Dwayne Bowe at wideout, and some other pieces coming together, at least the team is moving in the right direction. Bowe is a bit frustrating to watch for Chiefs fans, as he has all the tools but the numbers don’t stack up. Weis’ new offense could help change that, but it’s a wait and see attitude in KC right now. The presence of Chris Chambers on the other side of Bowe, and the pick of Dexter McCluster in the draft will help Cassell spread it out like the Weis offense dictates. Things are starting to resemble the Pats in some aspects offensively, but that team is built on defense first anyway, so we’ll see The offensive line is serviceable, and doesn’t get much written about it which must mean it doesn’t draw much attention. The Chiefs are a team in rebuild mode, so the draft was very important to them. The addition of Eric Berry out of Tennessee is a big infusion of talent, with his head-denting ability to hit and cover seriously improving both the pass and rush defense. Combined with Javier Arenas at CB, and the draft was very good to the Kansas City secondary. The linebackers are a little lacking, but the complexity of Crennel’s 3-4 defense should negate an offense keying on one weak spot. After all, Mike Vrabel is good, but not 2008 James Harrison good. Glenn Dorsey, defensive end and former first rounder, has disappeared since winning seemingly every defensive college award his last season at LSU, but that could just be because of the nature of the 3-4 that focuses on linebacker play. The age of the linebackers, particularly Vrabel and Demorrio Williams at inside backer, is a question, but Crennel does need smart veterans much like the Pats do, so it could be less of a problem than I think. It’s going to be a long one in Kansas City, but at least they can improve even more through the draft next year, right? Prediction : 4-12
Up next: We head back east and take a gander at the NFC East. Should be a good time.
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